Die Taliban werden nach 2014 wieder die uneingeschränkten Herrscher Afghanistans sein - zumindest eine gewisse Zeit lang.
Das glaube ich nicht, denn die Afghanen lehnen diese mit überzeugender Mehrheit ab, und die afghanische Nordallianz, die sich im Bürgerkrieg mit den Taliban befand und dann durch den Westen unterstützt wurde, hat eine gänzlich andere Ausgangsposition als vorher.
Und da ja gerne den Afghanen die eigene Meinung oktroyiert wird, hier deren eigene:
Repräsentative Umfrage Dezember 2010 in Afghanistan (jeweils Prozentzahlen)
Who would you rather have ruling Afghanistan today: the current government, or the Taliban?
................Current government....Taliban................Other (vol.).........No opinion
11/13/10...86.............................09......................01....................05
12/23/09...90.............................06.......................*.....................03
01/12/09...82.............................04......................10....................04
11/07/07...84.............................04......................06....................06
10/19/06...88.............................03......................04....................05
10/18/05...91.............................01......................02....................06
Which of the following do you think poses the biggest danger in our country: drug traffickers, local commanders, the United States, the Taliban, the current Afghan government, or something else? (Up to two answers accepted.)
11/13/10 - Summary table
.............................................._1st_........._2nd_.........Total
Taliban
................................................64..............04.............69
Drug traffickers
................................................14..............27.............41
Local commanders
................................................06..............17.............23
United States
................................................06..............22.............28
Current Afghan government
................................................01..............04.............06
Suicide attacks
.................................................*...............01.............01
Corruption in the government
.................................................*...............01.............02
Al-Qaeda
................................................01..............03.............04
Foreign forces bombardment
................................................01..............01.............01
From today‘s perspective, do you think it was very good, mostly good, mostly bad or very bad that U.S. military forces came into our country to bring down the Taliban government in 2001?
..................------ Good -------...------- Bad ---------...No
..................NET...Very...Mostly...NET...Mostly...Very...opinion
11/13/10.....74.....34......40........23.....12.........12.....03
12/23/09.....83.....41......42........15.....09.........06.....02
01/12/09.....69.....27......42........24.....12.........12.....07
11/07/07.....76.....35......40........20.....10.........10.....04
10/19/06.....88.....45......43........11.....07.........04.....01
10/18/05.....87.....48......39........09.....06.........03.....04
Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the presence of the following groups in Afghanistan today?
a. United States military forces
..................------- Support -----------....-------- Oppose ----------...No
..................NET.....Strongly...Smwhat....NET....Smwhat...Strongly...opinion
11/13/10.....62.......16...........47............37......23..........15...........01
12/23/09.....68.......21...........47............31......17..........14...........01
01/12/09.....63.......12...........51............36......21..........15...........02
11/07/07.....71.......20...........51............27......15..........12...........02
10/19/06.....78.......30...........48............21......15..........06...........01
b. NATO/ISAF military forces
..................------- Support -----------....-------- Oppose ----------...No
..................NET.....Strongly...Smwhat....NET....Smwhat...Strongly...opinion
11/13/10.....54.......13...........41............45......29..........16...........01
12/23/09.....61.......18...........44............37......21..........16...........02
01/12/09.....59.......13...........46............40......24..........16...........02
11/07/07.....67.......25...........42............30......17..........13...........02
10/19/06.....78.......30...........48............21......15..........06...........01
c. Jihadi fighters from other countries
..................------- Support -----------....-------- Oppose ----------...No
..................NET.....Strongly...Smwhat....NET....Smwhat...Strongly...opinion
11/13/10.....17.......04...........13............82......25..........57...........01
12/23/09.....17.......03...........14............81......27..........54...........02
01/12/09.....11.......02...........09............86......27..........60...........03
11/07/07.....14.......01...........13............83......27..........56...........03
10/19/06.....11.......01...........10............88......27..........61...........01
d. Fighters from the Taliban
..................------- Support -----------....-------- Oppose ----------...No
..................NET.....Strongly...Smwhat....NET....Smwhat...Strongly...opinion
11/13/10.....11.......03...........08............88......21..........67...........01
12/23/09.....10.......03...........07............88......19..........70...........02
01/12/09.....08.......02...........06............90......20..........70...........02
11/07/07.....05.......01...........04............92......19..........73...........03
10/19/06.....05.......01...........03............94......14..........81...........01
Die Punkte anstelle von Leerzeichen habe ich notwendigerweise hinzugefügt und die Formatierung dieser Eingabemaske mühsam angepasst, da ansonsten jedes übernommene Format zerstückelt wurde.
Quelle.